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Stocksund vs Hammarby FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Stocksund
Stocksund
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
8/29/2024Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd Round3Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stocksund5%
×Draw12%
Hammarby FF84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stocksund
0.51
Hammarby FF
2.76

Hammarby FF creates 441% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

creates per match

Stocksund
0.14
Hammarby FF
2.82

allows per match

Stocksund
2.71
Hammarby FF
0.88

finishing

Stocksund+0.00on par
Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stocksund ↓

Hammarby FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–111%
0–215%
0–314%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Stocksund or draw
16%
Stocksund or Hammarby FF
88%
Draw or Hammarby FF
95%

Winning margin

Stocksund wins by 2+
1%
Hammarby FF wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

Stocksund 1+ goals
40%
Stocksund 2+ goals
9%
Stocksund 3+ goals
2%
Hammarby FF 1+ goals
94%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
76%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Stocksund (draw refunded)
5%
Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stocksund at home — creates 0.14, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 2.82, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stocksund attack 0.14 + Hammarby FF defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.51

Hammarby FF attack 2.82 + Stocksund defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Stocksund scores more
5%
level
12%
Hammarby FF scores more
84%

Hammarby FF at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Stocksund 1–6 Hammarby FF

Hammarby FF beat Stocksund 6-1 in Svenska Cupen on August 29, 2024.

The match was played at 3Arena in Stockholm.