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Stocksund vs Fanna BK — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Stocksund
Stocksund
FT
2 – 1
Fanna BK
Fanna BK
9/5/2020Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 7Danderyds Gymnasium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stocksund64%
×Draw18%
Fanna BK18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stocksund
2.59
Fanna BK
1.33

Stocksund creates 95% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 7 away

creates per match

Stocksund
2.47
Fanna BK
1.29

allows per match

Stocksund
1.36
Fanna BK
2.71

finishing

Stocksund+0.00on par
Fanna BK+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stocksund ↓

Fanna BK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Stocksund or draw
82%
Stocksund or Fanna BK
82%
Draw or Fanna BK
36%

Winning margin

Stocksund wins by 2+
43%
Fanna BK wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Stocksund 1+ goals
92%
Stocksund 2+ goals
73%
Stocksund 3+ goals
47%
Fanna BK 1+ goals
74%
Fanna BK 2+ goals
38%
Fanna BK 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Stocksund (draw refunded)
78%
Fanna BK (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stocksund at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Fanna BK away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stocksund attack 2.47 + Fanna BK defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.59

Fanna BK attack 1.29 + Stocksund defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Stocksund scores more
64%
level
18%
Fanna BK scores more
18%

Stocksund at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Stocksund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Svealand: Stocksund 2–1 Fanna BK

Stocksund beat Fanna BK 2-1 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Danderyds Gymnasium in Danderyd.