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Stocksund vs AFC Eskilstuna — Ettan - Norra 2019

Stocksund
Stocksund
FT
4 – 4
HT: 4 – 0
AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
4/20/2026Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 3Danderyd IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Stocksund44%
×Draw21%
AFC Eskilstuna35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stocksund
2.12
AFC Eskilstuna
1.87

Stocksund creates 13% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 37 away

creates per match

Stocksund
1.85
AFC Eskilstuna
1.76

allows per match

Stocksund
1.98
AFC Eskilstuna
2.38

finishing

Stocksund+0.00on par
AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stocksund ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Stocksund or draw
65%
Stocksund or AFC Eskilstuna
79%
Draw or AFC Eskilstuna
56%

Winning margin

Stocksund wins by 2+
25%
AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Stocksund 1+ goals
88%
Stocksund 2+ goals
62%
Stocksund 3+ goals
35%
AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
85%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
56%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Stocksund (draw refunded)
56%
AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stocksund at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.38 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stocksund attack 1.85 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.12

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.76 + Stocksund defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stocksund scores more
44%
level
21%
AFC Eskilstuna scores more
35%

Stocksund at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stocksund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stocksund vs AFC Eskilstuna

Stocksund and AFC Eskilstuna drew 4-4 in Ettan - Norra on April 20, 2026.

The match was played at Danderyd IP in Stocksund.