Stockport County 3–1 Rotherham: Result & Stats

Stockport County

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rotherham

K. Wootton 73'

B. Hills 60'

J. Diamond 42'

M. Wilks 9'

4/12/2025

League One · Round 42Edgeley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Stockport County46%

×Draw26%

Rotherham28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stockport CountyExpected goals in this matchRotherham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.10

Stockport County

1.48

Rotherham

1.10

Stockport County creates 35% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.56

creates per match

0.96

1.25

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Stockport County

1.56

Rotherham

0.96

allows per match

Stockport County

1.25

Rotherham

1.41

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Stockport County+0.24scores more

Rotherham+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Rotherham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw

72%

Stockport County or Rotherham

74%

Draw or Rotherham

54%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+

23%

Rotherham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals

77%

Stockport County 2+ goals

43%

Stockport County 3+ goals

19%

Rotherham 1+ goals

67%

Rotherham 2+ goals

30%

Rotherham 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)

62%

Rotherham (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.41 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.56 + Rotherham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rotherham attack 0.96 + Stockport County defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stockport County scores more

46%

level

26%

Rotherham scores more

28%

Stockport County at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

B. Hills

Stockport County · D

8.5

Match Events

9'

M. Wilks↳ R. James

42'

J. Diamond↳ K. Wootton

55'

W. Collar← J. Fevrier

55'

60'

63'

63'

73'

80'

C. Connolly← B. Hills

82'

J. Ogunfaolu-Kayode← M. Wilks

90+1'

S. Cosgrove← K. Wootton

90+2'

J. Mingi← I. Olaofe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StockportRotherham

Overview

61%Possession39%

17Total Shots6

3Corners3

12Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots6

7On Target2

7Off Target2

3Blocked2

8Inside Box4

9Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

471Total Passes298

393Accurate Passes202

83%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Offsides4