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Stockport County vs Reading — League One 2018

Stockport County
Stockport County
Preview
15:00
Reading
Reading
11/14/2026League OneLeague One · Round 15Edgeley Park
44%
Stockport County
model favours
44%23%33%

Stockport County score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Stockport County44%
×Draw23%
Reading33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stockport County
1.73
Reading
1.48

Stockport County creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Stockport County
1.71
Reading
1.49

allows per match

Stockport County
1.46
Reading
1.76

finishing

Stockport County+0.29scores more
Reading+0.11scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Reading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw
67%
Stockport County or Reading
77%
Draw or Reading
56%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+
23%
Reading wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals
82%
Stockport County 2+ goals
52%
Stockport County 3+ goals
25%
Reading 1+ goals
77%
Reading 2+ goals
43%
Reading 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)
57%
Reading (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.46 · 6 matches

Reading away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.76 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.71 + Reading defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

Reading attack 1.49 + Stockport County defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stockport County scores more
44%
level
23%
Reading scores more
33%

Stockport County at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 80% of Stockport County’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 70% of Stockport County’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Stockport County
Balanced
Reading
Balanced
53%Possession51%
76%Pass accuracy75%
13.1ShotsBiggest gap11.8
1.38xG1.42
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Stockport CountyReading

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Stockport County
1
Draws
1
Reading
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 75%
0–11–13–14–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
County
WLWWW
Reading
LWLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stockport County face Reading (League One)

League One returns with Stockport County hosting Reading. Match starts November 14, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stockport County host Reading at Edgeley Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.