Stockport County 1–1 Reading: Result & Stats

Stockport County

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Reading

K. Wootton 22'

J. Marriott 72'

9/27/2025

League One · Round 10Edgeley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Stockport County44%

×Draw23%

Reading33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stockport CountyExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.48

Stockport County

1.73

Reading

1.48

Stockport County creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.71

creates per match

1.49

1.46

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Stockport County

1.71

Reading

1.49

allows per match

Stockport County

1.46

Reading

1.76

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Stockport County+0.29scores more

Reading+0.11scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw

67%

Stockport County or Reading

77%

Draw or Reading

56%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+

23%

Reading wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals

82%

Stockport County 2+ goals

52%

Stockport County 3+ goals

25%

Reading 1+ goals

77%

Reading 2+ goals

43%

Reading 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)

57%

Reading (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.46 · 6 matches

Reading away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.76 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.71 + Reading defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

Reading attack 1.49 + Stockport County defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stockport County scores more

44%

level

23%

Reading scores more

33%

Stockport County at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

O. Norwood

Stockport County · M

7.6

Match Events

22'

K. Wootton↳ T. Onyango

70'

M. Ritchie← D. Kyerewaa

71'

K. Abrefa← A. Ahmed

71'

K. Ehibhatiomhan← K. Doyle

72'

J. Marriott↳ M. Ritchie

74'

Finley Burns

75'

Odin Bailey

78'

J. Fevrier← O. Bailey

78'

N. Lowe← B. Andresson

86'

M. O'Mahony← P. Lane

90+1'

O. Moxon← J. Olowu

90+2'

M. Stickland← J. Marriott

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StockportReading

Overview

48%Possession52%

16Total Shots8

5Corners3

9Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots8

5On Target4

10Off Target2

1Blocked2

11Inside Box4

5Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

416Total Passes465

319Accurate Passes373

77%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

4Offsides3