Stockport County vs Peterborough

Stockport County

Preview

14:00

Peterborough

9/26/2026

League One · Round 8Edgeley Park

52%

Stockport County

model favours

52%24%24%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Stockport County52%

×Draw24%

Peterborough24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stockport CountyExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.08

Stockport County

1.71

Peterborough

1.08

Stockport County creates 58% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 45 away

1.81

creates per match

1.13

1.04

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Stockport County

1.81

Peterborough

1.13

allows per match

Stockport County

1.04

Peterborough

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stockport County+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw

76%

Stockport County or Peterborough

76%

Draw or Peterborough

48%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+

28%

Peterborough wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals

82%

Stockport County 2+ goals

51%

Stockport County 3+ goals

24%

Peterborough 1+ goals

66%

Peterborough 2+ goals

29%

Peterborough 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)

68%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.81 + Peterborough defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.71

Peterborough attack 1.13 + Stockport County defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stockport County scores more

52%

level

24%

Peterborough scores more

24%

Stockport County at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Stockport County sit 4, Peterborough 18 in the table
Stockport County outscore their xG (1.7 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Stockport County

Balanced

Peterborough

Balanced

53%Possession56%

75%Pass accuracy79%

12.1Shots12.2

1.33xGBiggest gap1.64

Stockport CountyPeterborough

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2

Stockport County

1

Draws

1

Peterborough

Avg goals: 3BTTS: 75%

3–10–31–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

County

LWWWL

Peterborough

LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff