Stockport County 2–1 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Stockport County

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Peterborough

I. Olaofe 75'

O. Bailey 11'

J. Randall 34'

12/20/2024

League One · Round 21Edgeley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Stockport County52%

×Draw24%

Peterborough24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stockport CountyExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.08

Stockport County

1.71

Peterborough

1.08

Stockport County creates 58% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 45 away

1.81

creates per match

1.13

1.04

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Stockport County

1.81

Peterborough

1.13

allows per match

Stockport County

1.04

Peterborough

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stockport County+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw

76%

Stockport County or Peterborough

76%

Draw or Peterborough

48%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+

28%

Peterborough wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals

82%

Stockport County 2+ goals

51%

Stockport County 3+ goals

24%

Peterborough 1+ goals

66%

Peterborough 2+ goals

29%

Peterborough 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)

68%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.81 + Peterborough defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.71

Peterborough attack 1.13 + Stockport County defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stockport County scores more

52%

level

24%

Peterborough scores more

24%

Stockport County at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

L. Barry

Stockport County · M

8.7

Match Events

11'

17'

34'

44'

46'

51'

D. O'Brien-Brady← H. Kyprianou

55'

59'

62'

69'

72'

A. Odoh← R. Jones

75'

I. Olaofe

76'

Emmanuel Fernandez

78'

R. Adebisi← H. Mills

78'

C. Conn-Clarke← C. Hayes

81'

C. Connolly← W. Collar

86'

O. Norwood← O. Bailey

86'

K. Knoyle← L. Barry

90+6'

Kyle Wootton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StockportPeterborough

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots5

2Corners1

16Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots5

3On Target1

7Off Target1

3Blocked3

8Inside Box3

5Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

408Total Passes464

319Accurate Passes353

78%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls16

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0