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Stockport County vs Luton — League One 2018

Stockport County
Stockport County
Preview
19:45
Luton
Luton
2/9/2027League OneLeague One · Round 30Edgeley Park
Big match
42%
Stockport County
model favours
42%23%35%

Stockport County score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Stockport County42%
×Draw23%
Luton35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stockport County
1.73
Luton
1.57

Stockport County creates 10% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Stockport County
1.76
Luton
1.74

allows per match

Stockport County
1.41
Luton
1.70

finishing

Stockport County-0.05on par
Luton-0.16scores less

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw
65%
Stockport County or Luton
77%
Draw or Luton
58%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+
22%
Luton wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals
82%
Stockport County 2+ goals
52%
Stockport County 3+ goals
25%
Luton 1+ goals
79%
Luton 2+ goals
46%
Luton 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)
54%
Luton (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.41 · 7 matches

Luton away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.70 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.76 + Luton defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.73

Luton attack 1.74 + Stockport County defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stockport County scores more
42%
level
23%
Luton scores more
35%

Stockport County at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 80% of Stockport County’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Luton have won 5 of the last 7 meetings
  • Both teams score in 70% of Stockport County’s matches
  • Luton win just 37% against the top half (vs 68% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Stockport County
Balanced
Luton
Possession-dominant
54%Possession55%
76%Pass accuracy76%
13.2Shots12.8
1.52xGBiggest gap1.60
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Stockport CountyLuton

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

0
Stockport County
2
Draws
5
Luton
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 43%
1–31–10–30–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
County
WLWWW
Luton
DWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stockport County host Luton

February 9, 2027: Stockport County take on Luton in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stockport County host Luton at Edgeley Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.