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Luton vs Stockport County — League #46 2026

Luton
Lutonadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Stockport County
Stockport County
N. Wells 90', 39'
E. Lawrence 22'
A. Sidibeh 11'
4/12/2026League #46League #46 · FinalWembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Luton55%
×Draw22%
Stockport County23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.94
Stockport County
1.19

Luton creates 63% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Luton
2.67
Stockport County
1.20

allows per match

Luton
1.17
Stockport County
1.20

finishing

Luton+0.00on par
Stockport County+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Stockport County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Luton or draw
77%
Luton or Stockport County
78%
Draw or Stockport County
45%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
32%
Stockport County wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
86%
Luton 2+ goals
58%
Luton 3+ goals
30%
Stockport County 1+ goals
70%
Stockport County 2+ goals
33%
Stockport County 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
70%
Stockport County (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Stockport County away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 2.67 + Stockport County defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.94

Stockport County attack 1.20 + Luton defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Luton scores more
55%
level
22%
Stockport County scores more
23%

Luton at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
N. WellsLutonLuton · F
8.6

Match Events

11'
A. Sidibeh↳ O. Bailey
22'
E. Lawrence↳ J. Clark
37'
Ethan Pye
39'
N. Wells↳ K. Naismith
65'
T. Olaofe← A. Sidibeh
65'
M. Mothersille← J. Olowu
76'
Jake Richards
77'
G. Kodua← E. Lawrence
78'
Isaiah Jones
85'
L. Bate← J. Stokes
85'
L. Barry← O. Bailey
87'
S. Morris← I. Jones
88'
N. Lonwijk← J. Richards
90+2'
Nahki Wells
90+7'
D. Cole← N. Wells
90+7'
G. Saville← K. Palmer
90+3'
O. Dodgson← J. Diamond
90'
N. Wells

Possession

49%Luton

Shots

15Luton

Pass accuracy

51%Luton

Statistics

LutonStockport
Overview
49%Possession51%
15Total Shots9
3Corners2
14Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots9
7On Target3
4Off Target4
4Blocked2
8Inside Box5
7Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
394Total Passes410
311Accurate Passes315
79%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
14Fouls12
3Yellow Cards1
4Offsides2

League #46: Luton 3–1 Stockport County

Luton beat Stockport County 3-1 in League #46 on April 12, 2026.

Goals: A. Sidibeh (11'), E. Lawrence (22'), N. Wells (39', 90').

Stockport County controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 15.

The match was played at Wembley Stadium in London.