Stockport County 3–2 Lincoln: Result & Stats

Stockport County

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Lincoln

I. Olaofe 81'

W. Collar 78'

J. Fevrier 48'

E. Ring 43'

B. House 24'

4/26/2025

League One · Round 45Edgeley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Stockport County39%

×Draw25%

Lincoln36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stockport CountyExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.41

Stockport County

1.48

Lincoln

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.76

creates per match

1.41

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Stockport County

1.76

Lincoln

1.41

allows per match

Stockport County

1.41

Lincoln

1.21

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.45scores more than expected

finishing

Stockport County-0.05on par

Lincoln+0.45scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw

64%

Stockport County or Lincoln

75%

Draw or Lincoln

61%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+

19%

Lincoln wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals

77%

Stockport County 2+ goals

43%

Stockport County 3+ goals

19%

Lincoln 1+ goals

76%

Lincoln 2+ goals

41%

Lincoln 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)

52%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.41 · 7 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.21 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.76 + Lincoln defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.48

Lincoln attack 1.41 + Stockport County defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stockport County scores more

39%

level

25%

Lincoln scores more

36%

Stockport County at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

W. Collar

Stockport County · M

8.3

Match Events

14'

Ben House

24'

B. House↳ T. Darikwa

43'

E. Ring↳ B. House

46'

R. Rydel← I. Touray

46'

J. Fevrier← F. Horsfall

46'

I. Olaofe← B. Andrésson

48'

J. Fevrier↳ W. Collar

62'

T. Bayliss← E. Ring

67'

C. Connolly← K. Knoyle

68'

Ethan Erhahon

73'

J. Moylan← R. Hackett

73'

F. Draper← J. Collins

73'

C. McGrandles← B. House

78'

W. Collar↳ J. Fevrier

81'

Conor McGrandles

81'

I. Olaofe↳ J. Fevrier

82'

J. Gardner← E. Hamilton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StockportLincoln

Overview

61%Possession39%

22Total Shots9

9Corners3

13Fouls11

Shots

22Total Shots9

8On Target4

11Off Target4

3Blocked1

14Inside Box7

8Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

449Total Passes295

353Accurate Passes197

79%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls11

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1