Stockport County 0–2 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Stockport County

0 – 2

Fleetwood Town

8/15/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Edgeley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stockport County19%

×Draw26%

Fleetwood Town56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stockport CountyExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.55

Stockport County

0.77

Fleetwood Town

1.55

Fleetwood Town creates 101% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

0.71

creates per match

1.67

1.43

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Stockport County

0.71

Fleetwood Town

1.67

allows per match

Stockport County

1.43

Fleetwood Town

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stockport County+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0–010%

0–115%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw

44%

Stockport County or Fleetwood Town

74%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

81%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals

54%

Stockport County 2+ goals

18%

Stockport County 3+ goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

79%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

46%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)

25%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 0.71 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.77

Fleetwood Town attack 1.67 + Stockport County defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Stockport County scores more

19%

level

26%

Fleetwood Town scores more

56%

Fleetwood Town at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff