Stockport County 2–0 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Stockport County

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Exeter City

L. Barry 89' (pen)

T. Crama 67' (OG)

12/7/2024

League One · Round 19Edgeley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Stockport County52%

×Draw23%

Exeter City24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stockport CountyExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.14

Stockport County

1.79

Exeter City

1.14

Stockport County creates 57% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.56

creates per match

1.02

1.25

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Stockport County

1.56

Exeter City

1.02

allows per match

Stockport County

1.25

Exeter City

2.03

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Stockport County+0.24scores more

Exeter City+0.08on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw

76%

Stockport County or Exeter City

77%

Draw or Exeter City

48%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+

29%

Exeter City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals

83%

Stockport County 2+ goals

53%

Stockport County 3+ goals

26%

Exeter City 1+ goals

68%

Exeter City 2+ goals

32%

Exeter City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)

68%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.03 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.56 + Exeter City defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.79

Exeter City attack 1.02 + Stockport County defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stockport County scores more

52%

level

23%

Exeter City scores more

24%

Stockport County at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

L. Barry

Stockport County · F

8.2

Match Events

33'

O. Norwood← F. Horsfall

49'

Jay Mingi

50'

Vincent Harper

54'

J. Magennis← V. Harper

60'

Caleb Watts

61'

S. Hughes← J. Mingi

64'

R. Cole← C. Watts

67'

T. CramaOwn goal

72'

Ryan Woods

81'

D. Mitchell← I. Niskanen

81'

K. Doyle← R. Woods

82'

Sam Hughes

89'

L. BarryPenalty

90'

I. Olaofe← L. Barry

90+1'

J. Diamond← W. Collar

90'

O. Bailey← C. Camps

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StockportExeter

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots3

2Corners2

10Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots3

7On Target0

6Off Target2

2Blocked1

10Inside Box1

5Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

382Total Passes391

293Accurate Passes298

77%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides5