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Stockport County vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Stockport County
Stockport County
Preview
15:00
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
1/1/2027League OneLeague One · Round 23Edgeley Park
45%
Stockport County
model favours
45%25%30%

Stockport County score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Stockport County45%
×Draw25%
Burton Albion30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stockport County
1.60
Burton Albion
1.27

Stockport County creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Stockport County
1.56
Burton Albion
1.30

allows per match

Stockport County
1.25
Burton Albion
1.64

finishing

Stockport County+0.24scores more
Burton Albion-0.30scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw
70%
Stockport County or Burton Albion
75%
Draw or Burton Albion
55%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+
23%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals
80%
Stockport County 2+ goals
47%
Stockport County 3+ goals
22%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
72%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
36%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)
60%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.56 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.60

Burton Albion attack 1.30 + Stockport County defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stockport County scores more
45%
level
25%
Burton Albion scores more
30%

Stockport County at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 80% of Stockport County’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches
  • Stockport County have won 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Both teams score in 70% of Stockport County’s matches
  • Burton Albion win just 24% of their away games
  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Stockport County
Balanced
Burton Albion
Direct / counter-attacking
55%Possession43%
76%Pass accuracy65%
12.8ShotsBiggest gap9.9
1.35xG1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Stockport CountyBurton Albion

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

3
Stockport County
0
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 50%
0–32–12–13–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
County
WLWWW
Albion
LLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stockport County face Burton Albion (League One)

League One returns with Stockport County hosting Burton Albion. Match starts January 1, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stockport County host Burton Albion at Edgeley Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.