Stockport County 2–1 Burton Albion: Result & Stats

Stockport County

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Burton Albion

I. Olaofe 76'

K. Wootton 8'

J. Larsson 89'

3/29/2025

League One · Round 39Edgeley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Stockport County45%

×Draw25%

Burton Albion30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stockport CountyExpected goals in this matchBurton Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.27

Stockport County

1.60

Burton Albion

1.27

Stockport County creates 26% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.56

creates per match

1.30

1.25

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Stockport County

1.56

Burton Albion

1.30

allows per match

Stockport County

1.25

Burton Albion

1.64

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Stockport County+0.24scores more

Burton Albion-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Burton Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw

70%

Stockport County or Burton Albion

75%

Draw or Burton Albion

55%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+

23%

Burton Albion wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals

80%

Stockport County 2+ goals

47%

Stockport County 3+ goals

22%

Burton Albion 1+ goals

72%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

36%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)

60%

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.64 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.56 + Burton Albion defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.60

Burton Albion attack 1.30 + Stockport County defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stockport County scores more

45%

level

25%

Burton Albion scores more

30%

Stockport County at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

J. Larsson

Burton Albion · F

7.7

Match Events

8'

K. Wootton

24'

Ibou Touray

27'

John Joshua Mckiernan

45+3'

Jayden Fevrier

45+2'

Kyran Lofthouse

46'

F. Horsfall← K. Wootton

53'

Ethan Pye

55'

Ryan Sweeney

65'

N. Powell← W. Collar

65'

J. Diamond← J. Fevrier

71'

T. Kalinauskas← J. McKiernan

76'

I. Olaofe↳ J. Diamond

78'

O. Moxon← L. Bate

78'

J. Stretton← A. Forde

83'

B. Andrésson← I. Olaofe

87'

J. Larsson← R. Burrell

87'

D. Williams← K. Chauke

87'

J. Sraha← R. Sweeney

89'

J. Larsson↳ J. Stretton

90+4'

Ethan Pye

90+4'

Ethan Pye

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StockportBurton

Overview

47%Possession53%

6Total Shots12

0Corners7

14Fouls10

Shots

6Total Shots12

5On Target4

1Off Target1

0Blocked7

6Inside Box7

0Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

409Total Passes438

333Accurate Passes352

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls10

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2