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Stockport County vs Barnsley — League One 2018

Stockport County
Stockport County
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Barnsley
Barnsley
11/29/2025League OneLeague One · Round 18Edgeley Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Stockport County42%
×Draw25%
Barnsley33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stockport County
1.52
Barnsley
1.31

Stockport County creates 16% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 118 away

creates per match

Stockport County
1.74
Barnsley
1.59

allows per match

Stockport County
1.02
Barnsley
1.31

finishing

Stockport County+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockport County ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Stockport County or draw
67%
Stockport County or Barnsley
75%
Draw or Barnsley
58%

Winning margin

Stockport County wins by 2+
21%
Barnsley wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stockport County 1+ goals
78%
Stockport County 2+ goals
45%
Stockport County 3+ goals
20%
Barnsley 1+ goals
73%
Barnsley 2+ goals
38%
Barnsley 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stockport County (draw refunded)
56%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockport County at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.02 · 47 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockport County attack 1.74 + Barnsley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.52

Barnsley attack 1.59 + Stockport County defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stockport County scores more
42%
level
25%
Barnsley scores more
33%

Stockport County at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Stockport County 1–1 Barnsley

Stockport County and Barnsley drew 1-1 in League One on November 29, 2025.

The match was played at Edgeley Park in Stockport.