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Stockholm Internazionale vs Kalmar FF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Stockholm Internazionale
Stockholm Internazionale
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kalmar FF
Kalmar FF
2/15/2025Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Hammarby IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stockholm Internazionale17%
×Draw23%
Kalmar FF60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stockholm Internazionale
0.85
Kalmar FF
1.80

Kalmar FF creates 112% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

creates per match

Stockholm Internazionale
0.50
Kalmar FF
1.93

allows per match

Stockholm Internazionale
1.67
Kalmar FF
1.20

finishing

Stockholm Internazionale+0.00on par
Kalmar FF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockholm Internazionale ↓

Kalmar FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Stockholm Internazionale or draw
40%
Stockholm Internazionale or Kalmar FF
77%
Draw or Kalmar FF
83%

Winning margin

Stockholm Internazionale wins by 2+
5%
Kalmar FF wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Stockholm Internazionale 1+ goals
57%
Stockholm Internazionale 2+ goals
21%
Stockholm Internazionale 3+ goals
5%
Kalmar FF 1+ goals
83%
Kalmar FF 2+ goals
54%
Kalmar FF 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Stockholm Internazionale (draw refunded)
23%
Kalmar FF (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockholm Internazionale at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Kalmar FF away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockholm Internazionale attack 0.50 + Kalmar FF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.85

Kalmar FF attack 1.93 + Stockholm Internazionale defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Stockholm Internazionale scores more
17%
level
23%
Kalmar FF scores more
60%

Kalmar FF at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kalmar FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Stockholm Internazionale 2–0 Kalmar FF

Stockholm Internazionale beat Kalmar FF 2-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Hammarby IP in Stockholm.