Stockholm Internazionale 0–2 IF Brommapojkarna

Stockholm Internazionale

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

IF Brommapojkarna

8/21/2025

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundKristinebergs IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stockholm Internazionale11%

×Draw19%

IF Brommapojkarna70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stockholm InternazionaleExpected goals in this matchIF Brommapojkarna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.68

2.08

Stockholm Internazionale

0.68

IF Brommapojkarna

2.08

IF Brommapojkarna creates 206% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

0.50

creates per match

2.50

1.67

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Stockholm Internazionale

0.50

IF Brommapojkarna

2.50

allows per match

Stockholm Internazionale

1.67

IF Brommapojkarna

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stockholm Internazionale+0.00on par

IF Brommapojkarna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockholm Internazionale ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–113%

0–214%

0–310%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Stockholm Internazionale or draw

30%

Stockholm Internazionale or IF Brommapojkarna

81%

Draw or IF Brommapojkarna

89%

Winning margin

Stockholm Internazionale wins by 2+

3%

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Stockholm Internazionale 1+ goals

49%

Stockholm Internazionale 2+ goals

15%

Stockholm Internazionale 3+ goals

3%

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

87%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

61%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Stockholm Internazionale (draw refunded)

14%

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockholm Internazionale at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockholm Internazionale attack 0.50 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.68

IF Brommapojkarna attack 2.50 + Stockholm Internazionale defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Stockholm Internazionale scores more

11%

level

19%

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

70%

IF Brommapojkarna at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "IF Brommapojkarna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff