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Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall — Svenska Cupen 2019

Stockholm Internazionale
Stockholm Internazionale
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
8/20/2024Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundHammarby IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stockholm Internazionale35%
×Draw25%
GIF Sundsvall39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stockholm Internazionale
1.34
GIF Sundsvall
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

creates per match

Stockholm Internazionale
0.50
GIF Sundsvall
1.18

allows per match

Stockholm Internazionale
1.67
GIF Sundsvall
2.18

finishing

Stockholm Internazionale+0.00on par
GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockholm Internazionale ↓

GIF Sundsvall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Stockholm Internazionale or draw
61%
Stockholm Internazionale or GIF Sundsvall
75%
Draw or GIF Sundsvall
65%

Winning margin

Stockholm Internazionale wins by 2+
16%
GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Stockholm Internazionale 1+ goals
74%
Stockholm Internazionale 2+ goals
39%
Stockholm Internazionale 3+ goals
15%
GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
76%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
41%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Stockholm Internazionale (draw refunded)
48%
GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockholm Internazionale at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

GIF Sundsvall away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockholm Internazionale attack 0.50 + GIF Sundsvall defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.34

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.18 + Stockholm Internazionale defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stockholm Internazionale scores more
35%
level
25%
GIF Sundsvall scores more
39%

GIF Sundsvall at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "GIF Sundsvall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stockholm Internazionale vs GIF Sundsvall

Stockholm Internazionale beat GIF Sundsvall 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on August 20, 2024.

The match was played at Hammarby IP in Stockholm.