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Stockholm Internazionale vs Fanna BK — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Stockholm Internazionale
Stockholm Internazionale
FT
2 – 1
Fanna BK
Fanna BK
8/15/2020Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 4Kristinebergs IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stockholm Internazionale70%
×Draw17%
Fanna BK13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stockholm Internazionale
2.58
Fanna BK
1.04

Stockholm Internazionale creates 148% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 7 away

creates per match

Stockholm Internazionale
2.45
Fanna BK
1.29

allows per match

Stockholm Internazionale
0.80
Fanna BK
2.71

finishing

Stockholm Internazionale+0.00on par
Fanna BK+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockholm Internazionale ↓

Fanna BK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Stockholm Internazionale or draw
87%
Stockholm Internazionale or Fanna BK
83%
Draw or Fanna BK
30%

Winning margin

Stockholm Internazionale wins by 2+
48%
Fanna BK wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Stockholm Internazionale 1+ goals
92%
Stockholm Internazionale 2+ goals
72%
Stockholm Internazionale 3+ goals
47%
Fanna BK 1+ goals
65%
Fanna BK 2+ goals
28%
Fanna BK 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Stockholm Internazionale (draw refunded)
84%
Fanna BK (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockholm Internazionale at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.80 · 20 matches

Fanna BK away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockholm Internazionale attack 2.45 + Fanna BK defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.58

Fanna BK attack 1.29 + Stockholm Internazionale defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Stockholm Internazionale scores more
70%
level
17%
Fanna BK scores more
13%

Stockholm Internazionale at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Stockholm Internazionale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Svealand: Stockholm Internazionale 2–1 Fanna BK

Stockholm Internazionale beat Fanna BK 2-1 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Kristinebergs IP in Stockholm.