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Stockholm Internazionale vs Degerfors IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Stockholm Internazionale
Stockholm Internazionale
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
9/30/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundKristinebergs IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stockholm Internazionale18%
×Draw20%
Degerfors IF61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stockholm Internazionale
1.07
Degerfors IF
2.13

Degerfors IF creates 99% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

creates per match

Stockholm Internazionale
0.50
Degerfors IF
2.59

allows per match

Stockholm Internazionale
1.67
Degerfors IF
1.65

finishing

Stockholm Internazionale+0.00on par
Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockholm Internazionale ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Stockholm Internazionale or draw
39%
Stockholm Internazionale or Degerfors IF
80%
Draw or Degerfors IF
82%

Winning margin

Stockholm Internazionale wins by 2+
7%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Stockholm Internazionale 1+ goals
66%
Stockholm Internazionale 2+ goals
29%
Stockholm Internazionale 3+ goals
9%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
88%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
63%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Stockholm Internazionale (draw refunded)
23%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockholm Internazionale at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockholm Internazionale attack 0.50 + Degerfors IF defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.07

Degerfors IF attack 2.59 + Stockholm Internazionale defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Stockholm Internazionale scores more
18%
level
20%
Degerfors IF scores more
61%

Degerfors IF at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stockholm Internazionale vs Degerfors IF

Stockholm Internazionale and Degerfors IF drew 1-1 in Svenska Cupen on September 30, 2020.

The match was played at Kristinebergs IP in Stockholm.