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Stockholm Internazionale vs Dalkurd FF — Ettan - Norra 2019

Stockholm Internazionale
Stockholm Internazionale
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dalkurd FF
Dalkurd FF
5/13/2023Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 7Stockholms Olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Stockholm Internazionale47%
×Draw24%
Dalkurd FF29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stockholm Internazionale
1.67
Dalkurd FF
1.25

Stockholm Internazionale creates 34% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 30 away

creates per match

Stockholm Internazionale
1.97
Dalkurd FF
1.50

allows per match

Stockholm Internazionale
0.99
Dalkurd FF
1.37

finishing

Stockholm Internazionale+0.00on par
Dalkurd FF+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockholm Internazionale ↓

Dalkurd FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stockholm Internazionale or draw
71%
Stockholm Internazionale or Dalkurd FF
76%
Draw or Dalkurd FF
53%

Winning margin

Stockholm Internazionale wins by 2+
25%
Dalkurd FF wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stockholm Internazionale 1+ goals
81%
Stockholm Internazionale 2+ goals
50%
Stockholm Internazionale 3+ goals
23%
Dalkurd FF 1+ goals
71%
Dalkurd FF 2+ goals
36%
Dalkurd FF 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Stockholm Internazionale (draw refunded)
62%
Dalkurd FF (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockholm Internazionale at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.99 · 68 matches

Dalkurd FF away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockholm Internazionale attack 1.97 + Dalkurd FF defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.67

Dalkurd FF attack 1.50 + Stockholm Internazionale defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stockholm Internazionale scores more
47%
level
24%
Dalkurd FF scores more
29%

Stockholm Internazionale at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stockholm Internazionale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: Stockholm Internazionale 0–1 Dalkurd FF

Dalkurd FF beat Stockholm Internazionale 1-0 in Ettan - Norra on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stockholms Olympiastadion in Stockholm.