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Stockay-Warfusée vs Union Namur — League #487 2026

Stockay-Warfusée
Stockay-Warfusée
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Union Namur
Union Namur
W. Aabdi 87'
P. Bertaccini 65', 26'
O. Traore 60'
11/23/2025League #487League #487 · ACFF - 14Terrain rue Joseph Wauters

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Stockay-Warfusée41%
×Draw23%
Union Namur36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stockay-Warfusée
1.66
Union Namur
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

creates per match

Stockay-Warfusée
1.07
Union Namur
1.50

allows per match

Stockay-Warfusée
1.60
Union Namur
2.25

finishing

Stockay-Warfusée+0.00on par
Union Namur+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockay-Warfusée ↓

Union Namur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Stockay-Warfusée or draw
64%
Stockay-Warfusée or Union Namur
77%
Draw or Union Namur
59%

Winning margin

Stockay-Warfusée wins by 2+
21%
Union Namur wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stockay-Warfusée 1+ goals
81%
Stockay-Warfusée 2+ goals
49%
Stockay-Warfusée 3+ goals
23%
Union Namur 1+ goals
79%
Union Namur 2+ goals
46%
Union Namur 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Stockay-Warfusée (draw refunded)
53%
Union Namur (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockay-Warfusée at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Union Namur away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockay-Warfusée attack 1.07 + Union Namur defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.66

Union Namur attack 1.50 + Stockay-Warfusée defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stockay-Warfusée scores more
41%
level
23%
Union Namur scores more
36%

Stockay-Warfusée at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stockay-Warfusée will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
P. Bertaccini
60'
O. Traore
65'
P. Bertaccini
87'
W. Aabdi
Stockay-Warfusée
Union
S. Demets
Manager: S. Demets
D. Vandenbroeck
Manager: D. Vandenbroeck

League #487: Stockay-Warfusée 0–4 Union Namur

Union Namur beat Stockay-Warfusée 4-0 in League #487 on November 23, 2025.

Goals: P. Bertaccini (26', 65'), O. Traore (60'), W. Aabdi (87').

The match was played at Terrain rue Joseph Wauters in Saint-Georges-sur-Meuse.