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Stockay-Warfusée vs Albert Quévy-Mons — League #487 2026

Stockay-Warfusée
Stockay-Warfusée
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Albert Quévy-Mons
Albert Quévy-Mons
2/15/2026League #487League #487 · ACFF - 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Stockay-Warfusée23%
×Draw24%
Albert Quévy-Mons53%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stockay-Warfusée
1.04
Albert Quévy-Mons
1.69

Albert Quévy-Mons creates 63% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

creates per match

Stockay-Warfusée
1.07
Albert Quévy-Mons
1.78

allows per match

Stockay-Warfusée
1.60
Albert Quévy-Mons
1.00

finishing

Stockay-Warfusée+0.00on par
Albert Quévy-Mons+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stockay-Warfusée ↓

Albert Quévy-Mons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stockay-Warfusée or draw
47%
Stockay-Warfusée or Albert Quévy-Mons
76%
Draw or Albert Quévy-Mons
77%

Winning margin

Stockay-Warfusée wins by 2+
9%
Albert Quévy-Mons wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Stockay-Warfusée 1+ goals
65%
Stockay-Warfusée 2+ goals
28%
Stockay-Warfusée 3+ goals
9%
Albert Quévy-Mons 1+ goals
82%
Albert Quévy-Mons 2+ goals
50%
Albert Quévy-Mons 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Stockay-Warfusée (draw refunded)
31%
Albert Quévy-Mons (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stockay-Warfusée at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

Albert Quévy-Mons away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stockay-Warfusée attack 1.07 + Albert Quévy-Mons defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Albert Quévy-Mons attack 1.78 + Stockay-Warfusée defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Stockay-Warfusée scores more
23%
level
24%
Albert Quévy-Mons scores more
53%

Albert Quévy-Mons at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Albert Quévy-Mons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stockay-Warfusée vs Albert Quévy-Mons

Stockay-Warfusée and Albert Quévy-Mons drew 0-0 in League #487 on February 15, 2026.