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Stjarnan vs Vikingur Reykjavik — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Stjarnan
Stjarnan
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vikingur Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik
5/19/2025ÚrvalsdeildÚrvalsdeild · Round 7Samsung völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Stjarnan30%
×Draw21%
Vikingur Reykjavik49%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stjarnan
1.60
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.08

Vikingur Reykjavik creates 30% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 22 away

creates per match

Stjarnan
2.16
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.36

allows per match

Stjarnan
1.80
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.05

finishing

Stjarnan+0.00on par
Vikingur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stjarnan ↓

Vikingur Reykjavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Stjarnan or draw
51%
Stjarnan or Vikingur Reykjavik
79%
Draw or Vikingur Reykjavik
70%

Winning margin

Stjarnan wins by 2+
14%
Vikingur Reykjavik wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Stjarnan 1+ goals
80%
Stjarnan 2+ goals
47%
Stjarnan 3+ goals
22%
Vikingur Reykjavik 1+ goals
87%
Vikingur Reykjavik 2+ goals
61%
Vikingur Reykjavik 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Stjarnan (draw refunded)
38%
Vikingur Reykjavik (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stjarnan at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

Vikingur Reykjavik away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stjarnan attack 2.16 + Vikingur Reykjavik defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.60

Vikingur Reykjavik attack 2.36 + Stjarnan defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stjarnan scores more
30%
level
21%
Vikingur Reykjavik scores more
49%

Vikingur Reykjavik at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vikingur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stjarnan vs Vikingur Reykjavik

Stjarnan and Vikingur Reykjavik drew 2-2 in Úrvalsdeild on May 19, 2025.

The match was played at Samsung völlurinn in Gardabaer.