Stjarnan 2–0 Linfield: Result & Stats

Stjarnan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Linfield

7/11/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying RoundSamsung völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stjarnan63%

×Draw22%

Linfield14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StjarnanExpected goals in this matchLinfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.72

Stjarnan

1.80

Linfield

0.72

Stjarnan creates 150% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

0.70

0.75

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Stjarnan

2.00

Linfield

0.70

allows per match

Stjarnan

0.75

Linfield

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stjarnan+0.00on par

Linfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stjarnan ↓

Linfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Stjarnan or draw

86%

Stjarnan or Linfield

78%

Draw or Linfield

37%

Winning margin

Stjarnan wins by 2+

37%

Linfield wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Stjarnan 1+ goals

83%

Stjarnan 2+ goals

54%

Stjarnan 3+ goals

27%

Linfield 1+ goals

51%

Linfield 2+ goals

16%

Linfield 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Stjarnan (draw refunded)

81%

Linfield (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stjarnan at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Linfield away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stjarnan attack 2.00 + Linfield defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Linfield attack 0.70 + Stjarnan defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Stjarnan scores more

63%

level

22%

Linfield scores more

14%

Stjarnan at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Stjarnan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff