Stjarnan 4–2 KR Reykjavik: Result & Stats

Stjarnan

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

KR Reykjavik

O. Eggertsson 56'

B. Waren 11'

A. Hauksson 9'

E. Atlason 2'

H. Sigurdsson 90'

A. Sigurdarson 45'

5/29/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 9Samsung völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Stjarnan46%

×Draw20%

KR Reykjavik34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StjarnanExpected goals in this matchKR Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.98

Stjarnan

2.30

KR Reykjavik

1.98

Stjarnan creates 16% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

2.16

creates per match

2.16

1.80

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Stjarnan

2.16

KR Reykjavik

2.16

allows per match

Stjarnan

1.80

KR Reykjavik

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stjarnan+0.00on par

KR Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stjarnan ↓

KR Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Stjarnan or draw

66%

Stjarnan or KR Reykjavik

80%

Draw or KR Reykjavik

54%

Winning margin

Stjarnan wins by 2+

27%

KR Reykjavik wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Stjarnan 1+ goals

90%

Stjarnan 2+ goals

67%

Stjarnan 3+ goals

40%

KR Reykjavik 1+ goals

86%

KR Reykjavik 2+ goals

59%

KR Reykjavik 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Stjarnan (draw refunded)

57%

KR Reykjavik (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stjarnan at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

KR Reykjavik away — creates 2.16, concedes 2.44 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stjarnan attack 2.16 + KR Reykjavik defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.30

KR Reykjavik attack 2.16 + Stjarnan defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stjarnan scores more

46%

level

20%

KR Reykjavik scores more

34%

Stjarnan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stjarnan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

E. Atlason↳ A. Hauksson

9'

J. Gunnarsson← G. Kristjansson

9'

A. Hauksson

11'

B. Waren↳ A. Hauksson

37'

B. Waren

45'

A. Thordarson

45+3'

A. Hauksson

45'

A. Sigurdarson↳ M. Praest

47'

D. Matthiasson

52'

A. Sigurdarson

56'

O. Eggertsson↳ E. Atlason

59'

B. Gudlaugsson← T. Thorisson

59'

R. Hlynsson← G. Gudbrandsson

61'

H. Sigurdsson

71'

G. Eyjolfsson

72'

A. Andrason← G. Tryggvason

78'

A. Albertsson← A. Sigurdarson

83'

H. O. Brink← D. Matthiasson

83'

A. Bjarnason← O. Eggertsson

83'

A. Birgisson← B. Waren

90'

H. Sigurdsson↳ R. Hlynsson

Stjarnan

KR

12

Georgsson

15

▼

Gudbrands

28

⚽

Sigurdsso

22

Thordarso

21

Eyjolfsso

6

▼

Sigurdars

16

A

Praest

4

Bjarnason

11

⚽

Sigurdars

10

▼

Tryggvaso

9

Saebjorns

12

Olafsson

5

▼

Kristjans

6

Ingimarss

4

▼

Thorisson

32

Orvarsson

10

Fridjonss

29

⚽A

Hauksson

7

⚽

▼

Eggertsso

19

▼

Matthiass

23

⚽

▼

Waren

22

⚽A

Atlason

Manager: Þórarinn Ingi Valdimarsson

9'▲J. Gunnarsson←▼G. Kristjansson

59'▲B. Gudlaugsson←▼T. Thorisson

83'▲H. O. Brink←▼D. Matthiasson

83'▲A. Bjarnason←▼O. Eggertsson

83'▲A. Birgisson←▼B. Waren

Stjarnan substitutes

1Birnuson8Gunnarsson14Barkarson28Gudlaugsson37Brink41Gudjonsson49Heimisson99Bjarnason59Birgisson

Manager: Óskar Hrafn Þorvaldsson

59'▲R. Hlynsson←▼G. Gudbrandsson

72'▲A. Andrason←▼G. Tryggvason

78'▲A. Albertsson←▼A. Sigurdarson

KR Reykjavik substitutes

1Ingolfsson90Tryggvason14Palmason18Thorlacius19Arnorsson20Andrason27Hlynsson29Albertsson37Gunnarsson