Stjarnan 2–1 IA Akranes: Result & Stats

Stjarnan

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

IA Akranes

G. Nokkvason 52'

A. Bjarnason 25'

S. Thorsteinsson 42'

4/14/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 2Samsung völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Stjarnan51%

×Draw20%

IA Akranes29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StjarnanExpected goals in this matchIA Akranes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.66

Stjarnan

2.26

IA Akranes

1.66

Stjarnan creates 36% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

2.21

creates per match

1.44

1.88

allows per match

2.32

creates per match

Stjarnan

2.21

IA Akranes

1.44

allows per match

Stjarnan

1.88

IA Akranes

2.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stjarnan+0.00on par

IA Akranes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stjarnan ↓

IA Akranes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Stjarnan or draw

71%

Stjarnan or IA Akranes

80%

Draw or IA Akranes

49%

Winning margin

Stjarnan wins by 2+

31%

IA Akranes wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stjarnan 1+ goals

89%

Stjarnan 2+ goals

66%

Stjarnan 3+ goals

39%

IA Akranes 1+ goals

81%

IA Akranes 2+ goals

49%

IA Akranes 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Stjarnan (draw refunded)

64%

IA Akranes (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stjarnan at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

IA Akranes away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stjarnan attack 2.21 + IA Akranes defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.26

IA Akranes attack 1.44 + Stjarnan defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Stjarnan scores more

51%

level

20%

IA Akranes scores more

29%

Stjarnan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Stjarnan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

A. Bjarnason↳ G. Nokkvason

42'

S. Thorsteinsson↳ H. Haraldsson

46'

R. Sigurjonsson

52'

G. Nokkvason↳ A. Bjarnason

57'

S. Jonsson← G. Kristjansson

63'

G. Unnarsson← M. Vardic

67'

H. Haraldsson

71'

O. Eggertsson

78'

A. Hafsteinsson← S. Thorsteinsson

80'

A. Hauksson← O. Eggertsson

80'

A. Birgisson← K. Kjartansson

80'

B. Gudlaugsson← A. Bjarnason

84'

B. Berndsen← H. Jonsson

84'

O. Stefansson← V. Jonsson

90'

90+2'

90+3'

90+3'

90+5'

J. H. Barkarson← B. Waren

Stjarnan

IA

1

3

13

66

4

▼

Jonsson

6

Stefansso

16

Sigurjons

10

⚽

▼

Thorstein

7

A

Haraldsso

19

▼

Vardic

9

▼

Jonsson

12

Olafsson

5

▼

6

32

10

7

▼

Eggertsso

30

▼

Kjartanss

18

⚽A

Nokkvason

99

⚽A

▼

Bjarnason

23

▼

Waren

22

Atlason

Manager: Þórarinn Ingi Valdimarsson

57'▲S. Jonsson←▼G. Kristjansson

80'▲A. Hauksson←▼O. Eggertsson

80'▲A. Birgisson←▼K. Kjartansson

80'▲B. Gudlaugsson←▼A. Bjarnason

90+5'▲J. H. Barkarson←▼B. Waren

Stjarnan substitutes

1Birnuson29Hauksson24Jonsson41Gudjonsson14Barkarson78Hauksson11Birgisson37Brink28Gudlaugsson

63'▲G. Unnarsson←▼M. Vardic

78'▲A. Hafsteinsson←▼S. Thorsteinsson

84'▲B. Berndsen←▼H. Jonsson

84'▲O. Stefansson←▼V. Jonsson

IA Akranes substitutes

18Leosson12Simonarson17Unnarsson28Samuelsson15Gunnarsson5Berndsen22Stefansson8Hafsteinsson25Agustsson