Stjarnan 2–1 FH hafnarfjordur: Result & Stats

Stjarnan

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FH hafnarfjordur

A. Bjarnason 69'

O. Eggertsson 66'

D. Traustason 90'

4/7/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 1Samsung völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Stjarnan52%

×Draw20%

FH hafnarfjordur28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StjarnanExpected goals in this matchFH hafnarfjordur

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.65

Stjarnan

2.29

FH hafnarfjordur

1.65

Stjarnan creates 39% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

2.16

creates per match

1.50

1.80

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Stjarnan

2.16

FH hafnarfjordur

1.50

allows per match

Stjarnan

1.80

FH hafnarfjordur

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stjarnan+0.00on par

FH hafnarfjordur+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stjarnan ↓

FH hafnarfjordur →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Stjarnan or draw

72%

Stjarnan or FH hafnarfjordur

80%

Draw or FH hafnarfjordur

48%

Winning margin

Stjarnan wins by 2+

32%

FH hafnarfjordur wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stjarnan 1+ goals

90%

Stjarnan 2+ goals

66%

Stjarnan 3+ goals

40%

FH hafnarfjordur 1+ goals

81%

FH hafnarfjordur 2+ goals

49%

FH hafnarfjordur 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Stjarnan (draw refunded)

65%

FH hafnarfjordur (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stjarnan at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

FH hafnarfjordur away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stjarnan attack 2.16 + FH hafnarfjordur defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.29

FH hafnarfjordur attack 1.50 + Stjarnan defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stjarnan scores more

52%

level

20%

FH hafnarfjordur scores more

28%

Stjarnan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stjarnan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

64'

66'

69'

70'

B. Gudlaugsson← K. Kjartansson

70'

D. Matthiasson← A. Hauksson

72'

A. Gudjohnsen← B. Bjarkason

72'

B. Sverrisson← G. Gunnarsson

78'

J. H. Barkarson← O. Eggertsson

78'

A. Birgisson← A. Bjarnason

82'

D. Traustason← B. Helgason

82'

A. Faqa← E. Ingvarsson

82'

A. Gudmundsson← B. Jonsson

85'

D. Matthiasson

90+5'

S. Jonsson← B. Waren

90'

D. Traustason↳ B. Sverrisson

Stjarnan

FH

13

Rosenorn

21

Bodvarsso

6

▼

Gunnarsso

2

▼

Jonsson

27

Arnarsson

18

▼

Ingvarsso

37

▼

Helgason

23

Robertsso

9

Hallsson

11

▼

7

12

5

6

32

10

29

▼

Hauksson

30

▼

Kjartanss

23

▼

Waren

18

Nokkvason

99

⚽

▼

Bjarnason

7

⚽

▼

Eggertsso

Manager: Þórarinn Ingi Valdimarsson

70'▲B. Gudlaugsson←▼K. Kjartansson

70'▲D. Matthiasson←▼A. Hauksson

78'▲J. H. Barkarson←▼O. Eggertsson

78'▲A. Birgisson←▼A. Bjarnason

90+5'▲S. Jonsson←▼B. Waren

Stjarnan substitutes

24Jonsson4Thorisson1Birnuson14Barkarson41Gudjonsson11Birgisson28Gudlaugsson19Matthiasson78Hauksson

Manager: Heimir Guðjónsson

72'▲A. Gudjohnsen←▼B. Bjarkason

72'▲B. Sverrisson←▼G. Gunnarsson

82'▲D. Traustason←▼B. Helgason

82'▲A. Faqa←▼E. Ingvarsson

82'▲A. Gudmundsson←▼B. Jonsson

FH hafnarfjordur substitutes

90Gudjohnsen32Gislason34Steinbjornsson36Traustason10Sverrisson4Faqa38Gudmundsson35Purisevic24Arnarsson

Match Recap: Stjarnan vs FH hafnarfjordur

Stjarnan beat FH hafnarfjordur 2-1 in Úrvalsdeild on April 7, 2025.

Goals: O. Eggertsson (66'), A. Bjarnason (69'), D. Traustason (90').

The match was played at Samsung völlurinn in Gardabaer.

Stjarnan vs FH hafnarfjordur — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Stjarnan vs FH hafnarfjordur