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Stjørdals-Blink vs Junkeren — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Stjørdals-Blink
Stjørdals-Blink
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Junkeren
Junkeren
10/19/20242. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25MUS Stadion Sandskogan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Stjørdals-Blink59%
×Draw19%
Junkeren22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stjørdals-Blink
2.37
Junkeren
1.40

Stjørdals-Blink creates 69% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 32 away

creates per match

Stjørdals-Blink
2.07
Junkeren
1.41

allows per match

Stjørdals-Blink
1.38
Junkeren
2.66

finishing

Stjørdals-Blink+0.00on par
Junkeren+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stjørdals-Blink ↓

Junkeren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Stjørdals-Blink or draw
78%
Stjørdals-Blink or Junkeren
81%
Draw or Junkeren
41%

Winning margin

Stjørdals-Blink wins by 2+
37%
Junkeren wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Stjørdals-Blink 1+ goals
91%
Stjørdals-Blink 2+ goals
68%
Stjørdals-Blink 3+ goals
42%
Junkeren 1+ goals
75%
Junkeren 2+ goals
41%
Junkeren 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Stjørdals-Blink (draw refunded)
73%
Junkeren (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stjørdals-Blink at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

Junkeren away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.66 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stjørdals-Blink attack 2.07 + Junkeren defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 2.37

Junkeren attack 1.41 + Stjørdals-Blink defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Stjørdals-Blink scores more
59%
level
19%
Junkeren scores more
22%

Stjørdals-Blink at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Stjørdals-Blink will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 2: Stjørdals-Blink 4–0 Junkeren

Stjørdals-Blink beat Junkeren 4-0 in 2. Division - Group 2 on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at MUS Stadion Sandskogan in Stjørdal.