Stjørdals-Blink 2–3 Fredrikstad: Result & Stats

Stjørdals-Blink

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Fredrikstad

M. Lillebo 53'

S. Kartum 27'

H. Johansen 90', 82'

T. Nilsen 66'

10/13/2019

2. Division - Group 1 · Round 24Nye Blinkbanen (Stjørdal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Stjørdals-Blink42%

×Draw21%

Fredrikstad37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stjørdals-BlinkExpected goals in this matchFredrikstad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.87

Stjørdals-Blink

2.00

Fredrikstad

1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 16 away

3.00

creates per match

2.63

1.11

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Stjørdals-Blink

3.00

Fredrikstad

2.63

allows per match

Stjørdals-Blink

1.11

Fredrikstad

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stjørdals-Blink+0.00on par

Fredrikstad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stjørdals-Blink ↓

Fredrikstad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Stjørdals-Blink or draw

63%

Stjørdals-Blink or Fredrikstad

79%

Draw or Fredrikstad

58%

Winning margin

Stjørdals-Blink wins by 2+

23%

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Stjørdals-Blink 1+ goals

86%

Stjørdals-Blink 2+ goals

59%

Stjørdals-Blink 3+ goals

32%

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

85%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

56%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Stjørdals-Blink (draw refunded)

53%

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stjørdals-Blink at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Fredrikstad away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stjørdals-Blink attack 3.00 + Fredrikstad defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Fredrikstad attack 2.63 + Stjørdals-Blink defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stjørdals-Blink scores more

42%

level

21%

Fredrikstad scores more

37%

Stjørdals-Blink at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stjørdals-Blink will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

38'

53'

60'

66'

67'

80'

82'

90'

Stjørdals-Blink

Fredrikstad

1

20

4

26

5

35

▼

Drage

7

Veteli

23

▼

Hagen

9

⚽

▼

Nilsen

22

⚽2

11

12

2

15

3

45

20

6

▼

Vinje

8

⚽

Kartum

10

Sørløkk

9

Stokke

24

⚽

Lillebo

Manager: R. Vikvang

60'▲S. Solli←▼F. Vinje

Stjørdals-Blink substitutes

11Solli5Nygaard16Magnusson17Valleraunet18Augdal22Rødahl25Husby

Manager: B. Johansen

38'▲A. Hagen←▼M. Hagen

67'▲N. Solberg←▼T. Drage

80'▲R. Alba←▼T. Nilsen

Fredrikstad substitutes

21Hagen14Solberg15Alba13Karstensen28Borgersen