Stjørdals-Blink 4–1 Asker: Result & Stats

Stjørdals-Blink

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Asker

M. Solheim 56'

R. Hermanstad 47', 28'

A. Bartel 33'

Y. Larsen 83'

9/27/2025

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22TMT Stadion Sandskogan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Stjørdals-Blink52%

×Draw22%

Asker26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stjørdals-BlinkExpected goals in this matchAsker

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.33

Stjørdals-Blink

1.94

Asker

1.33

Stjørdals-Blink creates 46% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

2.07

creates per match

1.29

1.38

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Stjørdals-Blink

2.07

Asker

1.29

allows per match

Stjørdals-Blink

1.38

Asker

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stjørdals-Blink+0.00on par

Asker+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stjørdals-Blink ↓

Asker →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Stjørdals-Blink or draw

74%

Stjørdals-Blink or Asker

78%

Draw or Asker

48%

Winning margin

Stjørdals-Blink wins by 2+

29%

Asker wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stjørdals-Blink 1+ goals

86%

Stjørdals-Blink 2+ goals

58%

Stjørdals-Blink 3+ goals

30%

Asker 1+ goals

74%

Asker 2+ goals

38%

Asker 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Stjørdals-Blink (draw refunded)

66%

Asker (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stjørdals-Blink at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

Asker away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stjørdals-Blink attack 2.07 + Asker defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.94

Asker attack 1.29 + Stjørdals-Blink defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stjørdals-Blink scores more

52%

level

22%

Asker scores more

26%

Stjørdals-Blink at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stjørdals-Blink will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

33'

37'

47'

56'

62'

N. Solskjaer← A. Fossli

62'

A. Viken← T. Pedersen

62'

E. Forren← M. Solheim

62'

N. J. Arnesen← R. M. Jabari S.

62'

66'

66'

66'

67'

69'

P. Einarson← A. Alemseged

75'

P. Einarson

76'

A. Kvalvik← R. Hermanstad

76'

A. Stokke← E. Brennhaugen

76'

L. Sesay← M. Baekken

83'

D. Pettersen← J. Prent-Eckbo

83'

Y. Larsen

89'

N. Solskjaer

Stjørdals-Blink

Asker

1

Normann

3

⚽

Larsen

14

▼

Prent-Eck

19

Jorgensen

33

▼

Brennhaug

7

Fredrikse

11

▼

Baekken

21

▼

S.

27

▼

9

77

1

4

19

▼

Pedersen

24

Strand

25

⚽

Bartel

8

Stuen

18

Havig

22

▼

Alemseged

7

⚽

▼

Solheim

10

▼

Fossli

11

⚽2

▼

Hermansta

Manager: M. Eriksson

62'▲N. Solskjaer←▼A. Fossli

62'▲A. Viken←▼T. Pedersen

62'▲E. Forren←▼M. Solheim

69'▲P. Einarson←▼A. Alemseged

76'▲A. Kvalvik←▼R. Hermanstad

Stjørdals-Blink substitutes

12Meidal5Holm9Solskjaer14Opgard15Viken23Einarson26Kvalvik29Forren

Manager: R. Bredal

62'▲N. J. Arnesen←▼R. M. Jabari S.

62'▲M. Jatta←▼J. Kenyi

76'▲A. Stokke←▼E. Brennhaugen

76'▲L. Sesay←▼M. Baekken

83'▲D. Pettersen←▼J. Prent-Eckbo

Asker substitutes

30Hejer5Stokke6Pettersen12Heggset17Arnesen20Sesay42Jatta