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Stirling University vs Lothian Hutchison — FA Cup 2019

Stirling University
Stirling University
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lothian Hutchison
Lothian Hutchison
9/18/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundForthbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Stirling University47%
×Draw22%
Lothian Hutchison32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stirling University
2.00
Lothian Hutchison
1.62

Stirling University creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Stirling University
2.00
Lothian Hutchison
1.44

allows per match

Stirling University
1.80
Lothian Hutchison
2.00

finishing

Stirling University+0.00on par
Lothian Hutchison+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling University ↓

Lothian Hutchison →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Stirling University or draw
68%
Stirling University or Lothian Hutchison
78%
Draw or Lothian Hutchison
53%

Winning margin

Stirling University wins by 2+
26%
Lothian Hutchison wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stirling University 1+ goals
86%
Stirling University 2+ goals
59%
Stirling University 3+ goals
32%
Lothian Hutchison 1+ goals
80%
Lothian Hutchison 2+ goals
48%
Lothian Hutchison 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Stirling University (draw refunded)
60%
Lothian Hutchison (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling University at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Lothian Hutchison away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling University attack 2.00 + Lothian Hutchison defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Lothian Hutchison attack 1.44 + Stirling University defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stirling University scores more
47%
level
22%
Lothian Hutchison scores more
32%

Stirling University at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stirling University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Stirling University 3–0 Lothian Hutchison

Stirling University beat Lothian Hutchison 3-0 in FA Cup on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Forthbank Stadium in Stirling.