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Stirling University vs Caledonian Braves — FA Cup 2019

Stirling University
Stirling University
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Caledonian Braves
Caledonian Braves
McNeil 48', 31'
9/28/2024FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundForthbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Stirling University46%
×Draw22%
Caledonian Braves32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stirling University
1.92
Caledonian Braves
1.56

Stirling University creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Stirling University
2.00
Caledonian Braves
1.33

allows per match

Stirling University
1.80
Caledonian Braves
1.83

finishing

Stirling University+0.00on par
Caledonian Braves+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling University ↓

Caledonian Braves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Stirling University or draw
68%
Stirling University or Caledonian Braves
78%
Draw or Caledonian Braves
54%

Winning margin

Stirling University wins by 2+
26%
Caledonian Braves wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stirling University 1+ goals
85%
Stirling University 2+ goals
57%
Stirling University 3+ goals
30%
Caledonian Braves 1+ goals
79%
Caledonian Braves 2+ goals
46%
Caledonian Braves 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Stirling University (draw refunded)
59%
Caledonian Braves (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling University at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Caledonian Braves away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling University attack 2.00 + Caledonian Braves defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Caledonian Braves attack 1.33 + Stirling University defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stirling University scores more
46%
level
22%
Caledonian Braves scores more
32%

Stirling University at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stirling University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
McNeil
48'
McNeil

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stirling University vs Caledonian Braves

Caledonian Braves beat Stirling University 2-0 in FA Cup on September 28, 2024.

Goals: McNeil (31', 48').

The match was played at Forthbank Stadium in Stirling.