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Stirling University vs Burntisland Shipyard — FA Cup 2019

Stirling University
Stirling University
FT
6 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Burntisland Shipyard
Burntisland Shipyard
9/29/2025FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundForthbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stirling University71%
×Draw15%
Burntisland Shipyard14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stirling University
3.13
Burntisland Shipyard
1.40

Stirling University creates 124% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Stirling University
2.00
Burntisland Shipyard
1.00

allows per match

Stirling University
1.80
Burntisland Shipyard
4.25

finishing

Stirling University+0.00on par
Burntisland Shipyard+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling University ↓

Burntisland Shipyard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Stirling University or draw
86%
Stirling University or Burntisland Shipyard
85%
Draw or Burntisland Shipyard
29%

Winning margin

Stirling University wins by 2+
51%
Burntisland Shipyard wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Stirling University 1+ goals
95%
Stirling University 2+ goals
81%
Stirling University 3+ goals
59%
Burntisland Shipyard 1+ goals
75%
Burntisland Shipyard 2+ goals
41%
Burntisland Shipyard 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Stirling University (draw refunded)
83%
Burntisland Shipyard (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling University at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Burntisland Shipyard away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling University attack 2.00 + Burntisland Shipyard defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 3.13

Burntisland Shipyard attack 1.00 + Stirling University defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Stirling University scores more
71%
level
15%
Burntisland Shipyard scores more
14%

Stirling University at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Stirling University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Stirling University 6–2 Burntisland Shipyard

Stirling University beat Burntisland Shipyard 6-2 in FA Cup on September 29, 2025.

The match was played at Forthbank Stadium in Stirling.