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Stirling University vs Broxburn Athletic — League #731 2026

Stirling University
Stirling University
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Broxburn Athletic
Broxburn Athletic
2/7/2026League #731League #731

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stirling University37%
×Draw25%
Broxburn Athletic39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stirling University
1.44
Broxburn Athletic
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 3 away

creates per match

Stirling University
1.22
Broxburn Athletic
1.33

allows per match

Stirling University
1.65
Broxburn Athletic
1.67

finishing

Stirling University+0.00on par
Broxburn Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling University ↓

Broxburn Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stirling University or draw
61%
Stirling University or Broxburn Athletic
75%
Draw or Broxburn Athletic
63%

Winning margin

Stirling University wins by 2+
17%
Broxburn Athletic wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Stirling University 1+ goals
76%
Stirling University 2+ goals
42%
Stirling University 3+ goals
18%
Broxburn Athletic 1+ goals
77%
Broxburn Athletic 2+ goals
44%
Broxburn Athletic 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Stirling University (draw refunded)
49%
Broxburn Athletic (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling University at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

Broxburn Athletic away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling University attack 1.22 + Broxburn Athletic defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Broxburn Athletic attack 1.33 + Stirling University defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stirling University scores more
37%
level
25%
Broxburn Athletic scores more
39%

Broxburn Athletic at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Broxburn Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stirling University vs Broxburn Athletic

Stirling University beat Broxburn Athletic 3-2 in League #731 on February 7, 2026.