Stirling University 0–1 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Stirling University

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

2/21/2026

League #731 · Lowland League - 34Forthbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Stirling University23%

×Draw26%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stirling UniversityExpected goals in this matchBonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.52

Stirling University

0.91

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.52

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic creates 67% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 5 away

1.22

creates per match

1.40

1.65

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Stirling University

1.22

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.40

allows per match

Stirling University

1.65

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stirling University+0.00on par

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling University ↓

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Stirling University or draw

49%

Stirling University or Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

74%

Draw or Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

77%

Winning margin

Stirling University wins by 2+

8%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Stirling University 1+ goals

60%

Stirling University 2+ goals

23%

Stirling University 3+ goals

6%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1+ goals

78%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 2+ goals

45%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Stirling University (draw refunded)

31%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling University at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling University attack 1.22 + Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.91

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic attack 1.40 + Stirling University defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Stirling University scores more

23%

level

26%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic scores more

51%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff