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Stirling University vs Berwick Rangers — League #731 2026

Stirling University
Stirling University
FT
5 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Berwick Rangers
Berwick Rangers
11/8/2025League #731League #731

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Stirling University35%
×Draw25%
Berwick Rangers40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stirling University
1.41
Berwick Rangers
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 5 away

creates per match

Stirling University
1.22
Berwick Rangers
1.40

allows per match

Stirling University
1.65
Berwick Rangers
1.60

finishing

Stirling University+0.00on par
Berwick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling University ↓

Berwick Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stirling University or draw
60%
Stirling University or Berwick Rangers
75%
Draw or Berwick Rangers
65%

Winning margin

Stirling University wins by 2+
16%
Berwick Rangers wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Stirling University 1+ goals
76%
Stirling University 2+ goals
41%
Stirling University 3+ goals
17%
Berwick Rangers 1+ goals
78%
Berwick Rangers 2+ goals
45%
Berwick Rangers 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Stirling University (draw refunded)
47%
Berwick Rangers (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling University at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

Berwick Rangers away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling University attack 1.22 + Berwick Rangers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.41

Berwick Rangers attack 1.40 + Stirling University defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stirling University scores more
35%
level
25%
Berwick Rangers scores more
40%

Berwick Rangers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Berwick Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #731: Stirling University 5–2 Berwick Rangers

Stirling University beat Berwick Rangers 5-2 in League #731 on November 8, 2025.