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Stirling University vs Albion Rovers — FA Cup 2019

Stirling University
Stirling University
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Albion Rovers
Albion Rovers
9/25/2023FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundForthbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Stirling University31%
×Draw22%
Albion Rovers47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stirling University
1.50
Albion Rovers
1.90

Albion Rovers creates 27% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Stirling University
2.00
Albion Rovers
2.00

allows per match

Stirling University
1.80
Albion Rovers
1.00

finishing

Stirling University+0.00on par
Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling University ↓

Albion Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Stirling University or draw
53%
Stirling University or Albion Rovers
78%
Draw or Albion Rovers
69%

Winning margin

Stirling University wins by 2+
14%
Albion Rovers wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Stirling University 1+ goals
78%
Stirling University 2+ goals
44%
Stirling University 3+ goals
19%
Albion Rovers 1+ goals
85%
Albion Rovers 2+ goals
56%
Albion Rovers 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Stirling University (draw refunded)
39%
Albion Rovers (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling University at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Albion Rovers away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling University attack 2.00 + Albion Rovers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Albion Rovers attack 2.00 + Stirling University defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stirling University scores more
31%
level
22%
Albion Rovers scores more
47%

Albion Rovers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Albion Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Stirling University 1–3 Albion Rovers

Albion Rovers beat Stirling University 3-1 in FA Cup on September 25, 2023.

The match was played at Forthbank Stadium in Stirling.