Albion Rovers 5–0 Stirling University

Albion Rovers

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Stirling University

Bright Prince 86'

M. Lavery 60'

P. Mendy 50', 6'

P. Kennedy 37'

10/19/2024

League #731 · Lowland League - 14The Reigart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Albion Rovers63%

×Draw20%

Stirling University18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albion RoversExpected goals in this matchStirling University

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.10

Albion Rovers

2.24

Stirling University

1.10

Albion Rovers creates 104% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

1.20

allows per match

2.48

creates per match

Albion Rovers

2.00

Stirling University

1.00

allows per match

Albion Rovers

1.20

Stirling University

2.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Stirling University+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion Rovers ↓

Stirling University →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Albion Rovers or draw

82%

Albion Rovers or Stirling University

80%

Draw or Stirling University

37%

Winning margin

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

40%

Stirling University wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

89%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

65%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

38%

Stirling University 1+ goals

67%

Stirling University 2+ goals

30%

Stirling University 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

78%

Stirling University (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion Rovers at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Stirling University away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion Rovers attack 2.00 + Stirling University defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.24

Stirling University attack 1.00 + Albion Rovers defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Albion Rovers scores more

63%

level

20%

Stirling University scores more

18%

Albion Rovers at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Albion Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

37'

50'

60'

86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff