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Stirling University vs Albion Rovers — League #731 2026

Stirling University
Stirling University
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Albion Rovers
Albion Rovers
C. McKinley 89', 69'
Bright Prince 58'
N. Joseph 50'
9/6/2023League #731League #731 · Lowland League - 9Forthbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Stirling University40%
×Draw24%
Albion Rovers36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stirling University
1.61
Albion Rovers
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 5 away

creates per match

Stirling University
1.22
Albion Rovers
1.40

allows per match

Stirling University
1.65
Albion Rovers
2.00

finishing

Stirling University+0.00on par
Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling University ↓

Albion Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Stirling University or draw
64%
Stirling University or Albion Rovers
76%
Draw or Albion Rovers
60%

Winning margin

Stirling University wins by 2+
20%
Albion Rovers wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stirling University 1+ goals
80%
Stirling University 2+ goals
48%
Stirling University 3+ goals
22%
Albion Rovers 1+ goals
78%
Albion Rovers 2+ goals
45%
Albion Rovers 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Stirling University (draw refunded)
53%
Albion Rovers (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling University at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 23 matches

Albion Rovers away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling University attack 1.22 + Albion Rovers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Albion Rovers attack 1.40 + Stirling University defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stirling University scores more
40%
level
24%
Albion Rovers scores more
36%

Stirling University at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stirling University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
N. Joseph
58'
Bright Prince
69'
C. McKinley
89'
C. McKinley

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stirling University vs Albion Rovers

Stirling University and Albion Rovers drew 2-2 in League #731 on September 6, 2023.

Goals: N. Joseph (50'), Bright Prince (58'), C. McKinley (69', 89').

The match was played at Forthbank Stadium in Stirling.