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Stirling Lions vs Rockingham City — Western Australia NPL 2026

Stirling Lions
Stirling Lions
FT
1 – 0
Rockingham City
Rockingham City
7/27/2019Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 17Macedonia Park (Perth)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Stirling Lions59%
×Draw20%
Rockingham City21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stirling Lions
2.26
Rockingham City
1.27

Stirling Lions creates 78% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 31 away

creates per match

Stirling Lions
1.52
Rockingham City
1.03

allows per match

Stirling Lions
1.51
Rockingham City
3.00

finishing

Stirling Lions+0.00on par
Rockingham City+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling Lions ↓

Rockingham City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Stirling Lions or draw
79%
Stirling Lions or Rockingham City
80%
Draw or Rockingham City
41%

Winning margin

Stirling Lions wins by 2+
37%
Rockingham City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stirling Lions 1+ goals
89%
Stirling Lions 2+ goals
66%
Stirling Lions 3+ goals
39%
Rockingham City 1+ goals
72%
Rockingham City 2+ goals
36%
Rockingham City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stirling Lions (draw refunded)
74%
Rockingham City (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling Lions at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.51 · 65 matches

Rockingham City away — creates 1.03, concedes 3.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling Lions attack 1.52 + Rockingham City defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.26

Rockingham City attack 1.03 + Stirling Lions defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Stirling Lions scores more
59%
level
20%
Rockingham City scores more
21%

Stirling Lions at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Stirling Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia NPL: Stirling Lions 1–0 Rockingham City

Stirling Lions beat Rockingham City 1-0 in Western Australia NPL on July 27, 2019.

The match was played at Macedonia Park (Perth).