Stirling Albion vs Kelty Hearts — League Two 2018
Stirling Albion score first in only 9% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 19+ matches
Stirling Albion27%Kelty Hearts48%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Kelty Hearts creates 43% more chances
Season form · 116 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Stirling Albion ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Stirling Albion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 116 matches
Kelty Hearts away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Stirling Albion attack 1.33 + Kelty Hearts defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.08
Kelty Hearts attack 1.74 + Stirling Albion defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Kelty Hearts at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Kelty Hearts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Kelty Hearts score first in only 23% of matches
- Both teams score in 77% of Kelty Hearts’s matches
- Both teams score in only 27% of Stirling Albion’s matches
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Stirling Albion host Kelty Hearts on Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 14:00. The match is part of the League Two 2018/2019 season.
Stirling Albion vs Kelty Hearts — Match Preview
Stirling Albion face Kelty Hearts on October 10, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Stirling Albion host Kelty Hearts at Forthbank Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.