Kelty Hearts 1–0 Stirling Albion: Result & Stats

Kelty Hearts

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stirling Albion

S. McCluskey 33'

4/13/2024

League #183 · Round 33New Central Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kelty Hearts42%

×Draw29%

Stirling Albion29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kelty HeartsExpected goals in this matchStirling Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.97

Kelty Hearts

1.21

Stirling Albion

0.97

Kelty Hearts creates 25% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 8 away

0.91

creates per match

0.25

1.70

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Kelty Hearts

0.91

Stirling Albion

0.25

allows per match

Kelty Hearts

1.70

Stirling Albion

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kelty Hearts+0.00on par

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kelty Hearts ↓

Stirling Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kelty Hearts or draw

71%

Kelty Hearts or Stirling Albion

71%

Draw or Stirling Albion

58%

Winning margin

Kelty Hearts wins by 2+

18%

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kelty Hearts 1+ goals

70%

Kelty Hearts 2+ goals

34%

Kelty Hearts 3+ goals

12%

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

62%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

25%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kelty Hearts (draw refunded)

59%

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kelty Hearts at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kelty Hearts attack 0.91 + Stirling Albion defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.21

Stirling Albion attack 0.25 + Kelty Hearts defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kelty Hearts scores more

42%

level

29%

Stirling Albion scores more

29%

Kelty Hearts at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kelty Hearts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

C. Crane

28'

K. Banner

33'

S. McCluskey↳ L. Moore

37'

B. Paterson

52'

A. Cummins

56'

R. Cunningham← R. Lyon

63'

L. O'Donnell

65'

D. Hilson← R. Molotnikov

65'

D. Carrick← G. Spence

78'

81'

89'

90+1'

90+3'

Kelty

Stirling

27

4

6

5

30

12

3

7

▼

Molotniko

22

▼

14

19

1

4

6

▼

McKay

3

Paterson

12

Tidser

23

A

Moore

8

▼

Lyon

16

O'Donnell

11

⚽

McCluskey

9

Johnston

19

Bavidge

56'▲R. Cunningham←▼R. Lyon

78'▲J. Thomson←▼B. McKay

Kelty Hearts substitutes

10Cunningham5Thomson15Owens14Biabi20Campbell18McAllister24Garvie17Owens25McGiffin

Manager: D. Young

65'▲D. Hilson←▼R. Molotnikov

65'▲D. Carrick←▼G. Spence

Stirling Albion substitutes

25Hilson9Carrick21Cooper2McGeachie20Harrower1Currie18Weir