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Stirling Albion vs Dundee Utd — League Cup 2025

Stirling Albion
Stirling Albion
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd
Z. Sapsford 90+3' (pen)
7/11/2026League CupLeague Cup · Group StageForthbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Stirling Albion18%
×Draw25%
Dundee Utd57%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stirling Albion
0.77
Dundee Utd
1.61

Dundee Utd creates 109% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Stirling Albion
0.33
Dundee Utd
0.40

allows per match

Stirling Albion
2.83
Dundee Utd
1.20

finishing

Stirling Albion+0.00on par
Dundee Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling Albion ↓

Dundee Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–212%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Stirling Albion or draw
43%
Stirling Albion or Dundee Utd
75%
Draw or Dundee Utd
82%

Winning margin

Stirling Albion wins by 2+
5%
Dundee Utd wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Stirling Albion 1+ goals
54%
Stirling Albion 2+ goals
18%
Stirling Albion 3+ goals
4%
Dundee Utd 1+ goals
80%
Dundee Utd 2+ goals
48%
Dundee Utd 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)
24%
Dundee Utd (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling Albion at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Dundee Utd away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling Albion attack 0.33 + Dundee Utd defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.77

Dundee Utd attack 0.40 + Stirling Albion defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Stirling Albion scores more
18%
level
25%
Dundee Utd scores more
57%

Dundee Utd at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dundee Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
H. Wright← J. Mullin
60'
D. Tait
60'
J. Anderson← P. Camara
66'
R. Raine← B. Hepburn
75'
V. Sevelj← E. Agyei
82'
C. Leiper← L. Rose
90'
M. Russell← R. McLean
90+3'
Z. SapsfordPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Stirling Albion 0–1 Dundee Utd

Dundee Utd beat Stirling Albion 1-0 in League Cup on July 11, 2026.

Goals: Z. Sapsford (90+3' pen).

The match was played at Forthbank Stadium in Stirling.