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Stirling Albion vs Dundee — League #180 2026

Stirling Albion
Stirling Albion
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dundee
Dundee
2/19/2011League #180League #180 · Round 9Forthbank Stadium (Stirling)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Stirling Albion17%
×Draw29%
Dundee53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stirling Albion
0.59
Dundee
1.28

Dundee creates 117% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Stirling Albion
0.40
Dundee
1.56

allows per match

Stirling Albion
1.00
Dundee
0.78

finishing

Stirling Albion+0.00on par
Dundee+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling Albion ↓

Dundee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–120%
0–213%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Stirling Albion or draw
47%
Stirling Albion or Dundee
71%
Draw or Dundee
83%

Winning margin

Stirling Albion wins by 2+
4%
Dundee wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Stirling Albion 1+ goals
45%
Stirling Albion 2+ goals
12%
Stirling Albion 3+ goals
2%
Dundee 1+ goals
72%
Dundee 2+ goals
37%
Dundee 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)
24%
Dundee (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling Albion at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Dundee away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling Albion attack 0.40 + Dundee defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.59

Dundee attack 1.56 + Stirling Albion defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Stirling Albion scores more
17%
level
29%
Dundee scores more
53%

Dundee at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dundee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #180: Stirling Albion 0–1 Dundee

Dundee beat Stirling Albion 1-0 in League #180 on February 19, 2011.

The match was played at Forthbank Stadium (Stirling).