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Stirling Albion vs Ayr Utd — League Cup 2018

Stirling Albion
Stirling Albion
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ayr Utd
Ayr Utd
7/15/2023League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 2Forthbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stirling Albion19%
×Draw19%
Ayr Utd62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stirling Albion
1.19
Ayr Utd
2.30

Ayr Utd creates 93% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 20 away

creates per match

Stirling Albion
0.93
Ayr Utd
2.20

allows per match

Stirling Albion
2.40
Ayr Utd
1.45

finishing

Stirling Albion+0.00on par
Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling Albion ↓

Ayr Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Stirling Albion or draw
38%
Stirling Albion or Ayr Utd
81%
Draw or Ayr Utd
81%

Winning margin

Stirling Albion wins by 2+
7%
Ayr Utd wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Stirling Albion 1+ goals
70%
Stirling Albion 2+ goals
33%
Stirling Albion 3+ goals
12%
Ayr Utd 1+ goals
90%
Ayr Utd 2+ goals
67%
Ayr Utd 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)
23%
Ayr Utd (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling Albion at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Ayr Utd away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling Albion attack 0.93 + Ayr Utd defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ayr Utd attack 2.20 + Stirling Albion defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Stirling Albion scores more
19%
level
19%
Ayr Utd scores more
62%

Ayr Utd at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stirling Albion vs Ayr Utd

Stirling Albion and Ayr Utd drew 1-1 in League Cup on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Forthbank Stadium in Stirling.