Stirling Albion 1–1 Albion Rovers: Result & Stats

Stirling Albion

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Albion Rovers

A. Ryan 67' (pen)

M. Aitken 41'

4/6/2021

League Two · Round 14Forthbank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Stirling Albion44%

×Draw25%

Albion Rovers31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stirling AlbionExpected goals in this matchAlbion Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.25

Stirling Albion

1.56

Albion Rovers

1.25

Stirling Albion creates 25% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 79 away

1.33

creates per match

1.18

1.33

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Stirling Albion

1.33

Albion Rovers

1.18

allows per match

Stirling Albion

1.33

Albion Rovers

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stirling Albion ↓

Albion Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Stirling Albion or draw

69%

Stirling Albion or Albion Rovers

75%

Draw or Albion Rovers

56%

Winning margin

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

22%

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

79%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

46%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

21%

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

71%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

36%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

59%

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stirling Albion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 116 matches

Albion Rovers away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.78 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stirling Albion attack 1.33 + Albion Rovers defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Albion Rovers attack 1.18 + Stirling Albion defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stirling Albion scores more

44%

level

25%

Albion Rovers scores more

31%

Stirling Albion at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stirling Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

M. Aitken↳ L. Wilson

46'

D. Mackin← D. Byrne

46'

C. Eadie← D. Meggatt

46'

S. Roberts← R. McGeachie

67'

A. RyanPenalty

77'

J. Leitch

79'

K. Roberts← D. Wilson

84'

K. Doherty← L. Wilson

85'

P. Gallacher

90'

J. McKernon

Stirling

Albion

1

Stone

5

Gallacher

11

A

▼

3

4

6

2

7

8

19

10

⚽

Aitken

1

Currie

3

▼

Meggatt

2

▼

5

4

6

8

▼

Wilson

10

Leitch

7

⚽

Ryan

9

▼

Byrne

11

Moore

Manager: K. Rutkiewicz

46'▲D. Mackin←▼D. Byrne

46'▲C. Eadie←▼D. Meggatt

46'▲S. Roberts←▼R. McGeachie

79'▲K. Roberts←▼D. Wilson

Stirling Albion substitutes

22Mackin12Eadie18Roberts19Roberts15Docherty17Binnie16Thomson14Hamilton23Heaver

Manager: B. Reid

84'▲K. Doherty←▼L. Wilson

Albion Rovers substitutes

9Doherty15Moran20Cox21Ecrepont17Henry16Baker14Dolan12Fagan18Kouame