Albion Rovers 0–1 Stirling Albion: Result & Stats

Albion Rovers

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stirling Albion

E. McGill 111'

11/26/2022

FA Cup · 3rd RoundThe Reigart Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Albion Rovers28%

×Draw25%

Stirling Albion47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albion RoversExpected goals in this matchStirling Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.61

Albion Rovers

1.18

Stirling Albion

1.61

Stirling Albion creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

0.75

creates per match

1.60

1.63

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Albion Rovers

0.75

Stirling Albion

1.60

allows per match

Albion Rovers

1.63

Stirling Albion

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albion Rovers+0.00on par

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albion Rovers ↓

Stirling Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Albion Rovers or draw

53%

Albion Rovers or Stirling Albion

75%

Draw or Stirling Albion

72%

Winning margin

Albion Rovers wins by 2+

11%

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Albion Rovers 1+ goals

69%

Albion Rovers 2+ goals

33%

Albion Rovers 3+ goals

12%

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

80%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

48%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Albion Rovers (draw refunded)

37%

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albion Rovers at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albion Rovers attack 0.75 + Stirling Albion defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.18

Stirling Albion attack 1.60 + Albion Rovers defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Albion Rovers scores more

28%

level

25%

Stirling Albion scores more

47%

Stirling Albion at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stirling Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

L. Kidd← L. Fagan

58'

K. Dolan← S. Roberts

68'

B. Maciver-Redwood

82'

M. Lavery

100'

J. Russell← C. McAninch

100'

E. McGill← J. Jarvis

105'

A. Testa← C. Wilson

105'

I. Aslanoglu← B. Maciver-Redwood

111'

E. McGill↳ J. Russell

117'

M. Burrows

120'

B. Malcolm

120+1'

P. Grooms← J. Stokes

Albion

Stirling

1

4

3

5

8

▼

Stokes

7

▼

Jarvis

6

Heal

11

▼

McAninch

2

Gilmour

10

McKinley

9

▼

1

4

2

22

9

▼

Roberts

3

Malcolm

7

▼

11

6

8

21

▼

Fagan

Manager: B. Reid

38'▲L. Kidd←▼L. Fagan

58'▲K. Dolan←▼S. Roberts

105'▲A. Testa←▼C. Wilson

Albion Rovers substitutes

20Kidd18Dolan14Testa19Wright17Smith16Duncan24McArthur

Manager: C. Geddes

100'▲J. Russell←▼C. McAninch

100'▲E. McGill←▼J. Jarvis

105'▲I. Aslanoglu←▼B. Maciver-Redwood

120+1'▲P. Grooms←▼J. Stokes

Stirling Albion substitutes

15Russell17McGill20Aslanoglu19Grooms16Mirzasalimov14Bainbridge21Godik12Munro18Docherty

FA Cup: Albion Rovers 0–1 Stirling Albion

Stirling Albion beat Albion Rovers 1-0 in FA Cup on November 26, 2022.

Goals: E. McGill (111').

The match was played at The Reigart Stadium in Coatbridge.

Albion Rovers vs Stirling Albion — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Albion Rovers 0–1 Stirling Albion