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Stilon Gorzów vs Raków Częstochowa II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Stilon Gorzów
Stilon Gorzów
FT
0 – 5
Raków Częstochowa II
Raków Częstochowa II
8/5/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Stilon Gorzów38%
×Draw24%
Raków Częstochowa II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stilon Gorzów
1.54
Raków Częstochowa II
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Stilon Gorzów
1.37
Raków Częstochowa II
1.53

allows per match

Stilon Gorzów
1.51
Raków Częstochowa II
1.71

finishing

Stilon Gorzów+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stilon Gorzów ↓

Raków Częstochowa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Stilon Gorzów or draw
62%
Stilon Gorzów or Raków Częstochowa II
76%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa II
62%

Winning margin

Stilon Gorzów wins by 2+
19%
Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Stilon Gorzów 1+ goals
79%
Stilon Gorzów 2+ goals
45%
Stilon Gorzów 3+ goals
20%
Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals
78%
Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals
45%
Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Stilon Gorzów (draw refunded)
51%
Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stilon Gorzów at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

Raków Częstochowa II away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stilon Gorzów attack 1.37 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.54

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.53 + Stilon Gorzów defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stilon Gorzów scores more
38%
level
24%
Raków Częstochowa II scores more
38%

Stilon Gorzów at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stilon Gorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Stilon Gorzów 0–5 Raków Częstochowa II

Raków Częstochowa II beat Stilon Gorzów 5-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska in Gorzów Wielkopolski.